The ongoing Coronavirus pandemic and availability of global data on outbreaks has led to a flurry of different online dashboards. While there are some fantastic examples, they can in isolation be of limited use without the interpreation required.

This page provides daily updates for the latest on the Covid-19 outbreak, and not only aims to display the results, but explain the context in which they should be read. Hopefully, it should provide you with the necessary understanding in a way which is makes it clear to see the trends and direction of the outbreak.

This web page will update daily at approximately 12pm GMT. Bookmark it for the latest statistics.

Global Cases

There are 720117 recorded cases and 33925 recorded deaths. In the past 7 days, this has increase by 214% and 232% respectively.

Figure 1 shows the global trend in Coronavirus cases. Note it is plotted on a logarithmic scale: this is much more useful than a linear plot. In situations like this where we are dealing with a exponential growth, logarithmic plots enable us to easily visualise the rate of change much easier. Plotted on this, we transform the exponential curve into a straight line. If the line gets steeper, it means the virus is spreading quicker, while reducing the gradient shows that the virus is getting under control.

Note, that we have to be careful when using any data based on confirmed cases for several reasons. Firstly, there are large differences between the ways that countries are testing for Coronavirus, in particular with the numbers of tests being conducted. In general it is expected that confirmed cases are much lower than known currently recorded, the extent to which is unclear.

Logarithmic

Cumulative number of cases

Figure 1: Cumulative number of cases

Linear

Cumulative number of cases

Figure 2: Cumulative number of cases

Numbers of Deaths Daily

The numbers of deaths give a more consistent comparison of statistics.

Barplot showing the numbers of daily deaths

Figure 3: Barplot showing the numbers of daily deaths

Growth (logarithmic)

Logarithmic graphs are much better for visualising the growth of Covid-19. They enable us to

Global Maps

Interactive

Static Map

Biggest Outbreaks

Although the outbreak started mostly within Asia, there has been a shift in the hotspot to Europe

A summary of deaths per country

Figure 4: A summary of deaths per country

Assessing the Case Fatality

There is still a lot of uncertainty around how the proportion of deaths caused by COVID-19. This is represented by the Case Fatality Rate. During an outbreak of a pandemic the CFR is a poor measure of the mortality risk of the disease.

Firstly, there is a limited understanding of how many people have actually been tested, and many countries have only been testing those which are exhibiting symptons of the virus.

As noted in the Lancet

The virus and its clinical course are new, and we still have little information about them. Health care capacity and capability factors, including the availability of health-care workers, resources, facilities, and preparedness, also affect outcomes.

Case Fatality Rate of the ongoing COVID-19 Pandemic

Figure 5: Case Fatality Rate of the ongoing COVID-19 Pandemic

It has been noted in this study that the current COVID outbreak seems to be following previous pandemics: initial CFRs start high and tend and trend downwards. Estimates are placing the current CFR around COVID-19 IFR lies somewhere between 0.1% and 0.26%.*

The plot below provides the case fatality ratio for each country. For more detail on each countries trajectory, you can check the detailed reports available for each country (COMING SOON).

Read more on the influences of Case Fatality Rate: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

 

A work by Michael Harper

www.mikeyharper.uk